Is xwOBA better than batting average?

For overall offensive value, yes—xwOBA and wOBA incorporate walk and power value that batting average ignores.

When did Statcast expected stats begin?

Pitch tracking and related expected metrics are a Statcast-era product. Ballrecord’s pitch-level coverage starts in 2015.

xwOBA Explained: Expected Weighted On-Base Average

Understand xwOBA in Statcast baseball analytics, how expected outcomes differ from results, and when to trust the expected number.

In the notes

Expected stats remove some luck

xwOBA estimates the offensive value a hitter “should” have produced based on exit velocity, launch angle, and sometimes sprint speed on certain batted balls. It answers whether results are outrunning or lagging contact quality.

A hitter with wOBA far above xwOBA may be benefiting from placement luck. The reverse can flag a regression candidate whose underlying contact deserves better outcomes.

In the notes

Use expected metrics as a second sheet

Ballrecord’s primary tables preserve the official counting record. Expected metrics belong beside that record as interpretive context, especially in midseason evaluations when sample sizes are still forming.

Quick answers

Frequently asked questions

Is xwOBA better than batting average?: For overall offensive value, yes—xwOBA and wOBA incorporate walk and power value that batting average ignores.
When did Statcast expected stats begin?: Pitch tracking and related expected metrics are a Statcast-era product. Ballrecord’s pitch-level coverage starts in 2015.

Internal references

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